Friday, February 6, 2015


 the 'atmospheric right hook' has hit us hard the past 48 hours --- a strong jet stream supporting the advection of a lot of moisture into our area. Right now, things are primed for continued heavy rain and storm development:  lots of warm/wet air arriving from the south, strong jet streaks, and a very cold chunk of arctic air just sitting north of us.

 GFS - US - SL Pres/Prec - 12hr

These conditions are ripe for developing a strong Low right off the coast, as the models predict will occur Sunday night into Monday... though not quite a 'meteorological bomb' event, and not quite aimed along the 'sweet spot' track for Puget Sound windstorms, the storm will pack a punch to the Oregon and Washington coasts.  The storm forms rapidly Sunday, supported by 140-knot jet-induced divergence aloft. The storm drops into the 980s before beginning to fill on Monday as it rides up the Oregon and WA coasts.  The storm is still a few days out and the storm track isn't 'set in stone' given that quasi-explosive cyclogenesis can pull some tricks on its own. 

GFS - US - SL Pres/Prec - 3.5day

 GFS - US - 300mb - 48hr



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